TikTok Shop and live shopping in 2026: the state of social commerce
TikTok Shop processed $64 billion globally in 2025, and Whatnot is now valued at $20 billion. Social commerce has turned into a real sales channel. Here's what the data shows about its size, the regions and categories that sell, how crowded the seller market is, and how much live shopping matters.
From experiment to channel
For years, people predicted social commerce in the US would take off without much evidence. The 2025 numbers settled the question. According to TikTok Shop in the U.S. 2025, a report by Momentum Works and Tabcut, TikTok Shop's US gross merchandise value rose 68% to $15.1 billion in 2025, up from $9 billion in 2024. Globally, the same research put TikTok Shop's 2025 GMV at $64.3 billion across 16 markets, up 94%.
Emarketer published a forecast chart in November 2024 projecting that US social commerce sales would pass $100 billion in 2026. Its 2026 social commerce forecast, by analyst Minda Smiley, expects 51% of US social buyers to shop on TikTok this year.
Key numbers
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| TikTok Shop US GMV 2025 | $15.1B (+68% YoY) | Momentum Works / Tabcut |
| TikTok Shop US GMV 2024 | $9B | Momentum Works / Tabcut |
| TikTok Shop global GMV 2025 | $64.3B (+94%) | Momentum Works / Tabcut |
| TikTok Shop SEA GMV 2025 | $45.6B | Momentum Works / Tabcut |
| US GMV share via live 2025 | 14% (from 10%) | Momentum Works / Tabcut |
| Whatnot GMV 2025 | >$8B | FashionUnited, Aug 2026 |
| Whatnot valuation | $20B (Aug 2026) | FashionUnited |
| Global live commerce market 2025 | $172.9B | Grand View Research, via FashionUnited |
| US social commerce forecast 2026 | >$100B | Emarketer (Nov 2024) |
| US social buyers shopping on TikTok 2026 | 51% | Emarketer |
By region
Southeast Asia, not the US, is TikTok Shop's engine. Momentum Works put Southeast Asia GMV at $45.6 billion in 2025, roughly double the previous year and about 71% of the global total. The US, at $15.1 billion, is the largest single market outside that region.
| Region | TikTok Shop GMV 2025 | Share of global |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | $45.6B | ~71% |
| United States | $15.1B | ~23% |
| Other markets | ~$3.6B | ~6% |
| Global (16 markets) | $64.3B | 100% |
Source: Momentum Works / Tabcut (2026). Shares and "other markets" calculated from the reported totals.
The wider live commerce market follows the same pattern: Grand View Research, cited by FashionUnited, says Asia Pacific held 66.8% of global live commerce revenue in 2025. It projects the market will reach $230.3 billion in 2026.
Video sells more than live, for now
Live shopping is growing on TikTok Shop US, but it isn't the main channel. Momentum Works found that livestreams generated 14% of US GMV in 2025, up from 10%. Short video generated 50% and the Shop tab 36%. Creators' shoppable short-form videos are still where most sales happen. Live works best for pushing high-intent buyers to purchase.
| Channel | Share of US GMV 2025 |
|---|---|
| Short video | 50% |
| Shop tab | 36% |
| Livestream | 14% |
Source: Momentum Works / Tabcut (2026).
What sells
Beauty and personal care was the biggest US category in 2025, followed by womenswear and underwear, and then sports and outdoors, according to Momentum Works. The fastest-growing categories, from smaller bases, were kids' fashion, baby and maternity, and modest (Muslim) fashion.
Prices are falling in most of the shop. Momentum Works tracked 27 categories and found prices declined in 15 of them in 2025. The standout exception was jewellery accessories, where prices rose 36% year on year.
A crowded seller market
TikTok Shop's supply side is huge and top-heavy. Momentum Works counted 15.4 million influencers and 803,500 stores on TikTok Shop US in 2025. More than half of those stores made no sales at all, while more than 2,000 passed $1 million in GMV. For new brands, that means a store alone guarantees nothing; creator distribution does the selling.
| US seller metric (2025) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Influencers | 15.4M |
| Stores | 803,500 |
| Stores with zero sales | More than half |
| Stores above $1M GMV | More than 2,000 |
Source: Momentum Works / Tabcut (2026).
Whatnot proves live works in some categories
In collectibles, live shopping is the main channel. Whatnot raised $225 million at an $11.5 billion valuation in October 2025, when it reported more than $6 billion in GMV for the year to date (Net Influencer). Ten months later it raised $545 million at a $20 billion valuation, FashionUnited reported, bringing total funding to about $1.5 billion.
According to FashionUnited, Whatnot's 2025 GMV topped $8 billion, and investor Lightspeed said it had passed that total within six months of 2026. Buyers more than doubled over the year, sellers with $1 million in lifetime sales more than doubled, and the share of full-time sellers grew 25%. In the UK, its second-largest market, seller numbers rose 360%.
How brands are approaching it
Brands are still split. In Influencer Marketing Hub's Benchmark Report 2026, 46.7% of respondents planned to test social commerce in 2026, while 53.3% weren't using it yet. Among adopters, TikTok Shop dominated at 66.2%, far ahead of Instagram Checkout (13.2%) and YouTube Shopping (9.0%). Live shopping ranked among respondents' top three content formats 62% of the time.
Common mistakes for sellers
- Opening a store without creators. With more than half of US stores making zero sales, per Momentum Works, distribution matters more than listings.
- Going all-in on live. Live is growing but drove only 14% of US TikTok Shop GMV in 2025.
- Racing to the bottom on price. Prices fell in most tracked categories; margin, not volume, may be the constraint.
- Ignoring Southeast Asia lessons. Most of TikTok Shop's scale and playbook was built there.
Methodology note
TikTok Shop figures come from TikTok Shop in the U.S. 2025 by Momentum Works and Tabcut, which estimates GMV from tracked shop data; TikTok does not publish official GMV. GMV measures the total value of goods sold, not platform or creator revenue. Whatnot figures are company-reported via FashionUnited and Net Influencer. Market forecasts come from Emarketer and Grand View Research, and survey data from Influencer Marketing Hub's Benchmark Report 2026.
What it means for creators and brands
For creators, commerce is becoming an income stream they control. On TikTok, Shop commissions add to the Creator Rewards payouts covered in piece 3. For brands, affiliate creators bring a cost-per-sale model to a part of marketing that has mostly been paid by flat fee. That addresses the ROI-attribution problem the IAB found that creator marketers struggle with most.
FAQ
How much did TikTok Shop sell in 2025? Momentum Works and Tabcut estimate that TikTok Shop's US GMV was $15.1 billion in 2025, up 68%, and its global GMV was $64.3 billion across 16 markets.
How big is live shopping on TikTok Shop? Livestreams made up 14% of TikTok Shop's US GMV in 2025, up from 10% the year before. Short video made up 50%.
What sells best on TikTok Shop? In the US, beauty and personal care was the largest category in 2025, followed by womenswear and underwear, and then sports and outdoors.
How many sellers are on TikTok Shop US? Momentum Works counted about 803,500 stores and 15.4 million influencers in 2025. More than half of the stores recorded no sales.
How big is the global live commerce market? Grand View Research, cited by FashionUnited, put it at $172.9 billion in 2025 and projects $230.3 billion in 2026.
How big is Whatnot? Whatnot reported more than $8 billion in GMV for 2025 and was valued at $20 billion after its August 2026 funding round.